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A number of our clients have been asking a variety of questions related to the current and expected performance of financial markets and our economy. It is understood our economy, actually, the global economy, has suffered a terrible blow from the effects of the COVID-19 virus. On the other hand, domestic financial markets, equities, in particular, appear to be setting this fact aside. But this assumption is not correct, and the data I’m going to share with you will confirm my statement. and raise more questions. The headline information we receive from financial media sources is just that, bits, and pieces of a bigger puzzle, intended to grab your attention. When good information is available to us, both Jonathan and I will make a good attempt to interpret what it may be revealing. My effort here is a deeper dive into financial markets, the economy, and the story that is unfolding, having reviewed good information. The data and charts I have included offer careful reviewer insights to what could, or what will more-likely-than-not, occur in the intermediate and longer-term. To be clear, we don’t rely upon a crystal ball or anything like that when positioning our clients' portfolios. We do rely on science, data from independent resources, and a disciplined process when executing our management and advisory duties. As for the data, one should always consider the source of any information, particularly if this information is going to be disseminated to the public. The charts I’m sharing were prepared by JP Morgan. The data comes from a variety of sources, including the Federal Reserve Board, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Standard & Poor’s, Thompson Reuters, Robert Shiller & Co., FactSet, and JP Morgan Asset Management. I believe these sources to be reliable and therefore I’m comfortable sharing this information with you. Following your review, should you have any questions, or would like to discuss this information further, please give me a call. Keep in mind, it’s a puzzle that’s being put together to reveal a picture. What’s that picture going to look like? Let’s find out! The first chart, which is actually two different charts, shares with a viewer the economic output of the United States since 1970, specifically, the year-over-year change in our Gross Domestic Product (GDP), shown in quarterly segments. It is always a good thing to have a baseline, some historical context, to frame one’s perspective, in this case, a picture. The second chart actually segments our economic output into five broad categories, housing, investment (less housing), government spending, personal consumption, and net trade. You are most likely aware of the majority of U.S. economic output comes from our personal consumption. Do you recall the Ray Dailo video, How our Economic Machine Works, and the statement he makes repeatedly, “our income is another person’s spending?” The chart on the right clearly demonstrates the reliance our economy has on our spending. Through 2019 our total output exceeded $21.3 Trillion. On a per-capita basis, that works out to more than $63,000 for every U.S. citizen. Read the full article here >> Michael D. Puckett, AIFA® CFP® President, CEO PERSONAL FINANCIAL FIDUCIARY® Organization 9840 Westpoint Dr., Suite 150 Indianapolis, IN 46256 1-888-234-9674